IESc Seminar: Agricultural Production, Water Resources and Ecosystem Services under Conjunctive Irrigation in Konya Closed Basin: A Future Analysis with Participatory System Dynamics Approach by PhD candidate Elif Bal

Institute of Environmental Sciences Seminar Series

“Agricultural Production, Water Resources and Ecosystem Services under Conjunctive Irrigation in Konya Closed Basin: A Future Analysis with Participatory System Dynamics Approach”

by Elif Bal, PhD Candidate

Boğaziçi University

Institute of Environmental Sciences

We cordially invite you to our seminar “Agricultural Production, Water Resources and Ecosystem Services under Conjunctive Irrigation in Konya Closed Basin: A Future Analysis with Participatory System Dynamics Approach” to be held by Elif Bal, Boğaziçi University, Institute of Environmental Sciences

When: 13 April, 2026, Monday, 14:00-15:30

Where: Institute of Environmental Sciences Seminar Room (Hisar Campus E-Block)

Contact: pinar.ertor@bogazici.edu.tr for any questions.

Abstract:

The Konya Closed Basin in central Türkiye is a semi-arid region of major agricultural importance and a key example of growing challenges related to water scarcity and its governance. Despite its considerable groundwater potential and the presence of Türkiye’s largest freshwater lake, Lake Beyşehir, the Basin has experienced serious overexploitation of water resources. The crisis is largely driven by the expansion of water-intensive crops and the associated increase in water demand. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined by around 35 meters, leading to sinkhole formation, groundwater salinization, and higher irrigation costs. Rising groundwater extraction costs have shifted pressure toward surface water resources, particularly Lake Beyşehir. Increased water abstraction, combined with climate change impacts has contributed to critically declining lake levels. This study aims to improve understanding of the Basin’s complex water management dynamics and to identify integrated policy options for water resource management, agricultural production, and ecosystem conservation. To achieve this, the research applies a participatory system dynamics approach. A dynamic simulation model was developed in parallel with fieldwork and participatory workshops. The model simulates the interactions between agricultural water demand, surface and groundwater supply, and the resulting agricultural production and crop pattern changes in the Beyşehir and Konya-Çumra sub-basins. It incorporates hydrological processes and crop growth dynamics with water authority’s and farmers’ decisions. During participatory workshops, stakeholders identified problems, and proposed policy options informing scenario development. A model interface is designed to support co-development and evaluation of policy alternatives in a participatory setting. Model-based policy analysis indicates that effective basin water management depends on integrated strategies, including subsidizing less water-demanding crops and reducing conveyance losses, while isolated measures such as water transfer alone are comparatively less effective.

Short bio:

Elif Bal is a PhD candidate at the Institute of Environmental Sciences at Boğaziçi University, and secretary of the youth-led initiative NextGen4Med. She holds a BSc in Environmental Engineering from Middle East Technical University and an MSc from the Institute of Environmental Sciences. Her research focuses on system dynamics modeling, serious games, and participatory approaches for water resources management in agriculture.