IESc Seminar Series: Long-run crop yield trends and climate sensitivity in Türkiye, 1930–2024 by Ulaş Karakoç

Institute of Environmental Sciences Seminar Series

“Long-run crop yield trends and climate sensitivity in Türkiye, 1930–2024”

by Ulaş Karakoç

Kadir Has University

Department of Economics

We cordially invite you to our seminar “Long-run crop yield trends and climate sensitivity in Türkiye, 1930–2024” to be held by Ulaş Karakoç, from Kadir Has University, Department of Economics

When: 14 May, 2026, Thursday, 14:00-15:30

Where: Institute of Environmental Sciences Seminar Room (Hisar Campus E-Block)

Contact: pinar.ertor@bogazici.edu.tr for any questions.

Abstract:

This study examines long-run crop yield trajectories and climate sensitivity in Türkiye using a provincial panel dataset covering 13 crops and up to 67 provinces from 1930 to 2024, supplemented by ERA5-Land reanalysis climate data. Overall, the paper adds a large developing country to the long-run comparative evidence on yield stagnation and extends the econometric climate-yield literature to a setting with substantial climatic diversity. Three main findings emerge. First, yield trajectories are more heterogeneous than national aggregates suggest, as while most crops continue upward nationally, approximately half of wheat- and barley-growing provinces have reached a yield plateau, and the stagnating provinces have already achieved the highest yields in the pre-stagnation period. Second, the regressions analysis based on separate province trends show that growing-season precipitation is the dominant climate stressor for rainfed agriculture. On the other hand, summer irrigated crops exhibit near-zero precipitation sensitivity throughout. Third, the effect of extreme hot days on wheat and barley has reversed sign over time. Additional warm days that were mildly beneficial in the cooler pre-1980s period have become harmful afterwards.

Short bio:

Ulaş Karakoç is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. After studying Mathematics and Economics at Bogazici University, he earned his PhD in Economic History from the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2015. His research focuses on agricultural economics, development economics, and economic history. Currently, he is investigating the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, regional patterns of climate change vulnerability in agriculture, and developing prediction models for crop yields in Türkiye using long-run agronomic and climate data.